Africa’s energy story is a paradox. The continent holds immense natural resources and some of the best renewable potential in the world, yet around 42 percent of its people still lack access to reliable electricity. This reality constrains economic growth, undermines health and education, and limits opportunities for millions of young Africans. Addressing this challenge requires not only bold investment in renewables but also practical solutions that can deliver power at scale and on time.
Natural gas is one such solution. It is not a replacement for solar and wind, but it provides the reliable baseload power that can complement renewables and ensure stability across national grids. For Africa, gas can serve as a bridge, supporting electrification, fueling industry, and buying time for renewable technologies to mature and expand.
Libya is part of this story. The country holds significant natural gas reserves, but the sector remains underdeveloped. Years of political division, conflict, and underinvestment have slowed progress, leaving output far below potential. At the same time, the demand for secure and diversified energy supplies in both Africa and Europe has never been higher.
If developed responsibly and strategically, Libya’s natural gas can strengthen domestic energy security, support regional integration, and contribute to a just energy transition for the continent.
Libya’s Natural Gas Endowment and Current Production Profile
Libya’s natural gas endowment is substantial. With proven reserves of about 53 trillion cubic feet, the country ranks among the top five in Africa, alongside Nigeria, Algeria, Mozambique, and Egypt. This geological foundation places Libya in a position of strength, but translating reserves into sustained production has remained a challenge.
Production trends highlight the gap. Output stood at 423 billion cubic feet in 2022 but declined to 394 billion cubic feet in 2023, reflecting the impact of instability and underinvestment. While these volumes are meaningful, they fall short of what the reserves could support under conditions of stability and modern infrastructure.
Gas production today comes from a mix of offshore and onshore fields. Offshore, the non-associated gas fields of Bahr Essalam are the backbone of supply, feeding both domestic power stations and export facilities. Onshore, fields such as Wafa and Atshan provide additional capacity, while the Sirte Basin continues to yield associated gas from oil operations. Together, these sources form the current foundation of Libya’s gas system.
Looking forward, the National Oil Corporation has set plans to expand production through new development projects. Among the most significant are Structures A and E, which are tied to the Mellitah gas complex. Once operational, these projects are expected to add around 277 billion cubic feet per year starting in 2027. If implemented successfully, they would mark a meaningful step toward reversing the trend of declining output.
Libya’s reserves and planned projects underscore a simple truth: the geology is not the problem. The challenge lies in creating the political, financial, and infrastructural conditions necessary to transform potential into reliable production.
Strategic Importance for Domestic Energy and Industrial Growth
Natural gas is more than an export commodity for Libya. It is the backbone of domestic energy supply, accounting for around 85 percent of electricity generation. Every additional unit of gas that can be produced and delivered into the national grid directly improves the reliability of power for households, schools, hospitals, and businesses. For a country where frequent outages undermine confidence and economic activity, this role cannot be overstated.
The benefits extend beyond electricity. Natural gas is central to Libya’s industrial recovery. Sectors such as steel, cement, and fertilizer production depend on steady, affordable energy inputs. A more reliable gas supply would not only stabilize these industries but also support diversification of the economy, creating jobs and reducing dependence on oil exports alone.
There is also a clear efficiency argument. Libya still uses petroleum products such as diesel and heavy fuel oil for power generation in some regions. Substituting these with natural gas would lower costs, reduce emissions, and free up oil for export thereby strengthening national revenues without requiring new discoveries.
Having worked across the energy sector, I know how central electricity reliability is to economic confidence. For investors, manufacturers, and everyday citizens, consistent access to power signals stability. Gas is not the only solution, but it is the most immediate and scalable tool available to Libya today.
Oil Sector Revival as a Springboard for Gas
Libya’s oil industry has shown clear signs of recovery. By mid-2025, crude oil production had climbed back to around 1.23 million barrels per day, the highest level in more than a decade. The government has set an ambitious target of reaching 2 million barrels per day in the coming years, supported by a renewed wave of international partnerships. Companies such as Shell, BP, and ExxonMobil have returned with fresh exploration and development agreements, bringing with them both capital and technology.
This rebound in oil production is not only a matter of revenue. It has direct implications for the natural gas sector. Much of Libya’s gas output is “associated gas,” produced as a by-product of oil extraction. As oil volumes rise, so too does the opportunity to capture and monetize this gas rather than wasting it through flaring.
Current combined production of oil, condensates, and gas now amounts to about 1.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. This is a strong signal that the sector, while not yet at its potential, is regaining credibility. The task ahead is to ensure that the gas component of this output is handled efficiently and sustainably.
For Libya, every incremental barrel of oil produced provides both a revenue stream and an incentive to modernize gas infrastructure. By investing in gathering systems, processing plants, and pipelines, the country can turn rising oil production into a platform for reliable domestic gas supply and a renewed export position. In this sense, the revival of the oil sector is not an isolated achievement, it is a springboard for realizing the full value of Libya’s natural gas.
Challenges Hindering Gas Development
Unlocking Libya’s gas potential will require more than geology. The sector faces deep-rooted challenges that have slowed progress for years and continue to deter large-scale investment.
The first is political and security instability. Fragmented institutions and recurring disruptions at production sites make long-term planning difficult. Investors look for predictability, and without it, even promising projects are delayed or abandoned.
The second is infrastructure. Much of Libya’s gas network was built decades ago and has not kept pace with modern needs. Processing capacity is limited, pipelines require rehabilitation, and facilities for liquefied natural gas exports remain underdeveloped. These bottlenecks mean that even when gas is produced, it cannot always be transported or monetized efficiently.
The third is flaring. Libya ranked seventh globally in gas flaring in 2023, burning off roughly 240 billion cubic feet. This practice wastes valuable resources, increases emissions, and undermines the country’s credibility in an era when environmental performance increasingly shapes investment decisions.
Finally, there are financial and governance constraints. Large gas projects require stable regulatory frameworks, reliable fiscal terms, and transparent governance. Without reforms in these areas, Libya risks missing opportunities to attract the kind of international partnerships that are now revitalizing its oil sector.
These obstacles are real, but they are not insurmountable. Other countries with comparable challenges have managed to modernize their gas sectors by combining political stabilization with targeted reforms and technology deployment. Libya has the same potential, if it can create the right conditions.
Natural Gas and Africa’s Just Energy Transition
Africa’s energy transition cannot follow the same path as Europe or North America. The continent contributes less than 4 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, yet it faces the world’s most acute energy poverty. Expanding access to electricity for hundreds of millions of people is a matter of justice as much as development.
In this context, natural gas has an important role to play. Gas-fired power plants provide reliable baseload electricity that solar and wind, for all their promise, cannot yet deliver on their own. By stabilizing grids, gas allows renewables to expand without jeopardizing reliability. This complementarity is especially important in African countries where industrialization and urbanization are accelerating.
Libya’s contribution may not be about large export volumes but about responsible development of its reserves to meet both domestic and regional needs. Supplying power stations at home, fueling industries such as fertilizer and petrochemicals, and connecting into cross-border grids are all ways in which Libya’s gas can support economic growth while advancing energy access.
As someone who has worked for years at the intersection of Libya’s oil and gas production and international markets, I see the role of natural gas not as a contradiction to climate goals but as a bridge. It is a resource that, if managed wisely, can balance the urgent need for electricity today with the longer-term shift to renewable energy.
Regional and Global Implications
Libya’s natural gas sector matters not only for domestic development but also for regional and global energy security. Its reserves and location create opportunities for integration that extend well beyond national borders.
In the Mediterranean, Libya can help diversify Europe’s gas supply. Proximity to southern Europe gives Libyan gas a natural advantage: shorter transport routes mean lower costs and reduced carbon intensity compared with long-haul shipments from the Atlantic or the Gulf. By linking more reliably into Mediterranean pipelines and, over time, reviving liquefied natural gas capacity, Libya can position itself as a nearby and flexible supplier.
To the south, Libya’s geography also places it within reach of emerging trans-African energy networks. Strengthening interconnections with neighbors could allow the country to contribute to regional grids and support broader market integration. In this way, Libya’s gas would not only supply power but also build economic and political ties across Africa.
The regional context is equally important. Algeria to the west and Egypt to the east are already major gas exporters, each with strong partnerships in Europe. Libya sits between them with comparable reserves but has underperformed for years. With stability and investment, it could join this group as a third North African pillar of Mediterranean energy security.
Financing will be crucial. Multilateral institutions such as the African Development Bank and international climate funds are increasingly open to projects that reduce flaring, improve efficiency, and balance gas with renewables. Libya’s gas sector, if modernized in line with environmental standards, is well positioned to attract such support.
For both Africa and Europe, the scale of Libya’s gas may be smaller than that of its neighbors, but its strategic impact could be larger. It represents diversification, redundancy, and stability in a region where these qualities are in short supply.
Conclusion: Libya’s Gas as a Measured but Critical Role
Libya’s natural gas story is one of potential waiting to be unlocked. The reserves are among the largest in Africa, yet output remains well below what the geology could support. Political uncertainty, security risks, and outdated infrastructure continue to weigh heavily on the sector. These realities cannot be ignored.
But neither should the opportunities. Every step toward stabilizing production, reducing flaring, and modernizing infrastructure strengthens Libya’s position as a reliable energy partner. At home, natural gas can power industries, improve electrification, and free oil for export. Across Africa, it can support regional grids and contribute to a just energy transition. For Europe, it offers a nearby and flexible supply source at a time when diversification is more important than ever.
The role of Libya’s gas will not be defined by sheer scale. It will be defined by its strategic importance: stabilizing electricity for Libyans, complementing renewables across Africa, and reinforcing regional and Mediterranean energy security.
I believe that if developed responsibly and transparently, Libya’s natural gas can serve as more than a resource. It can be a bridge between reliability and transition, between domestic needs and regional cooperation, and between today’s challenges and tomorrow’s prosperity.