{"id":1075,"date":"2026-02-04T13:07:46","date_gmt":"2026-02-04T13:07:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/imadbenrajab.com\/?p=1075"},"modified":"2026-02-04T13:07:48","modified_gmt":"2026-02-04T13:07:48","slug":"%d8%b3%d9%88%d9%82-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%86%d9%81%d8%b7-%d8%a5%d8%af%d8%a7%d8%b1%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%81%d8%a7%d8%a6%d8%b6","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/imadbenrajab.com\/ar\/%d8%b3%d9%88%d9%82-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%86%d9%81%d8%b7-%d8%a5%d8%af%d8%a7%d8%b1%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%81%d8%a7%d8%a6%d8%b6\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0643\u064a\u0641 \u062a\u062a\u0639\u0644\u0645 \u0623\u0633\u0648\u0627\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0641\u0637 \u0625\u062f\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627\u0626\u0636"},"content":{"rendered":"

For most of the past decade, surplus was treated as a warning sign. Too many barrels often led to sharp selloffs, rushed policy responses, and exaggerated market moves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That reflex is fading.
The oil market is no longer trying to escape surplus. It is learning how to manage it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Decline Without Disruption<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

In 2025, oil prices fell more than 18 percent, the steepest annual decline since 2020. In previous cycles, that scale of decline would likely have triggered disorderly behavior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This time, it did not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prices softened, but the system held. Liquidity remained functional. Physical flows continued. The adjustment was absorbed rather than amplified. That outcome reflects preparation rather than luck.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Discipline Before Stress<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

One of the clearest signals came from producers. In November, OPEC+ approved only a modest increase of 137,000 barrels per day for December and then paused all further output hikes for the first quarter of 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This decision was taken despite seasonally weaker demand and rising inventories. It was not forced by a crisis. It was preemptive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That distinction matters. It signalled that supply management is now guided by forward indicators, not by panic response.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How Surplus Is Being Contained<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Several mechanisms are now working quietly in the background. Together, they reduce the destabilizing effect surplus once had.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You can see it in practice:<\/p>\n\n\n\n