Libya sits at a rare crossroads. Geographically, it bridges Europe, North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa. Geologically, it holds the largest proven oil reserves on the continent and substantial gas potential, much of it still untapped. Yet for too long, these advantages have been underleveraged. Today, Libya has the opportunity to reclaim its position as a strategic energy hub, not just for its own economy but for the wider Mediterranean region. Realizing this potential requires addressing long-standing institutional and infrastructure challenges, but the opportunity for Libya is undeniable.
In the near term, revitalizing oil and gas production will anchor economic recovery and signal reliability to international partners. Beyond hydrocarbons, Libya’s location allows it to connect Europe with Africa, offering a strategic advantage for regional energy security.
Here, I explore why Libya is uniquely positioned to lead Northern Africa’s energy landscape, what steps are required to maximize its potential and how careful investment, technology deployment and governance can transform ambition into reality. Drawing on my experience in the Libyan energy sector and collaboration with international partners, I aim to present a realistic yet visionary blueprint for the country’s energy future.
Libya’s Strategic Geography and Resources
Libya’s energy story begins with its location. Stretching more than 1,700 kilometers along the Mediterranean, it sits just a few days’ sailing from major European import terminals in Italy, Spain and Greece. That proximity matters in an era when both cost and carbon intensity per shipment are under scrutiny. Shorter shipping routes lower fuel use, reduce emissions and make Libyan exports more competitive.
Beneath the surface, Libya still holds Africa’s largest proven oil reserves, about 48 billion barrels, and an estimated 53 trillion cubic feet of gas, much of it underdeveloped. The Sirte Basin remains the country’s traditional oil heartland, while significant offshore gas potential lies in areas such as NC-41, NC-98 and the deep-water fields feeding Bahr Essalam.
For now, production has not caught up with potential. Libya currently pumps roughly 1.2 million barrels of oil per day, down from the pre-2011 peak and well below the 1.8 to 2 million barrels per day that technical assessments say is achievable with modern investment. On the gas side, Libya has been effectively absent from the global LNG trade since the early 2010s despite operating Africa’s first LNG plant at Marsa el Brega.
Geography also ties Libya naturally to its neighbors. Algeria to the west and Egypt to the east have each leveraged their reserves to secure strategic energy partnerships with Europe. Libya sits between them with comparable geological endowment but untapped capacity. Having coordinated Mediterranean energy initiatives, I understand how rare and underutilized Libya’s combination of reserves and location truly is. If it can stabilize its institutions and restore export credibility, it can join them as a cornerstone supplier for the wider Mediterranean market.
Near-Term Oil and Gas Focus and Realistic Production Goals
Libya’s energy revival will be built first on oil and gas. The fundamentals remain strong: large, mostly conventional reserves, decades of operational know-how, and export routes that require rehabilitation rather than reinvention. In the near term, hydrocarbons are the country’s most reliable engine for fiscal recovery and for financing future diversification.
The National Oil Corporation (NOC) currently reports production of around 1.2 to 1.3 million barrels per day. Technical capacity and field data suggest that with sustained investment, improved security at critical sites such as Sharara and El Feel, and modernization of aging pipelines and storage, output could return to 1.8 to 2 million barrels per day within the next three to five years.
International majors are again showing confidence. Shell, BP and ExxonMobil have signed new exploration and production agreements and begun deploying enhanced oil recovery and digital-field technologies that can boost yields from mature fields. On the gas side, offshore expansions, such as further phases at Bahr Essalam and appraisal of NC-41 and NC-98, could strengthen both domestic power supply and export capacity. Based on my time leading international marketing at NOC, I know that reviving these fields is as much about signaling reliability as it is about increasing production.
Restoring these volumes is not only an economic goal. It would anchor Libya as a stable, short-haul supplier to Europe at a time when the continent seeks alternatives to long-distance cargoes from the Atlantic and the Gulf. Realistic production growth, achieved through field rehabilitation and measured upstream expansion, offers the credibility international partners and investors look for before committing to larger downstream projects such as LNG or integrated petrochemicals.
Libya as the Bridge Between Europe and Africa
Libya’s geography gives it more than just resource wealth; it positions the country as a natural energy bridge between continents. Mediterranean ports such as Benghazi, Misrata and Tripoli can serve as gateways for oil and gas exports to Europe, while also providing access to emerging markets across sub-Saharan Africa. For decades, this potential remained underutilized, but the combination of proximity and infrastructure rehabilitation now offers a clear competitive advantage.
The region’s energy map highlights Libya’s strategic opportunity. Algeria has reached near-capacity on LNG exports, and Egypt faces domestic gas constraints despite recent pipeline expansions. Europe is increasingly looking for short-haul, low-carbon routes to diversify its supply. Libya can fill that gap, supplying both oil and gas efficiently while helping stabilize regional energy flows.
The country’s port infrastructure and pipeline network, if properly secured and modernized, allow for rapid deployment of both conventional and modular LNG projects as well as refined product distribution. These logistics advantages reduce both transit costs and the carbon footprint of shipments, an increasingly important consideration for European buyers and multinational investors.
In coordinating projects with Mediterranean energy firms, I have observed that each reliable shipment reinforces credibility and builds trust among partners. By leveraging its position as a true energy bridge, Libya can not only restore its market share but also become a cornerstone of Mediterranean energy security.
Renewable Energy as a Strategic Complement
While oil and gas remain Libya’s near-term anchor, the country cannot ignore the long-term potential of renewable energy. Libya enjoys some of the highest solar irradiation in the world, particularly across the southern desert regions, offering an opportunity to power domestic operations sustainably and reduce operational costs. Unlike Morocco, which has led the region with projects such as the Noor Solar Complex, Libya’s renewable sector has yet to see large-scale deployment.
The Moroccan experience offers two lessons. First, public-private partnerships and blended financing can attract the capital necessary for large renewable projects. Second, integrating renewables does not replace fossil fuels but complements them, reducing emissions and stabilizing electricity supply. For Libya, this means that solar and wind can support both domestic energy needs and industrial operations, including oil and gas facilities, without threatening near-term export goals.
Having worked closely on energy planning across North Africa, I know that sequencing renewable projects alongside hydrocarbons is a strategic necessity. Properly timed investment allows Libya to leverage oil and gas revenues to fund solar infrastructure, create jobs and establish itself as a forward-looking energy hub. In doing so, Libya can gradually diversify its energy mix while maintaining the near-term reliability and export credibility that international markets demand.
By learning from regional peers but tailoring solutions to its own geography, Libya can position itself not only as a Mediterranean energy supplier but also as a model for sustainable growth in North Africa.
Challenges and Forward Strategy
Libya’s energy potential is clear, but realizing it requires addressing persistent challenges. Political fragmentation, infrastructure deficits and security risks have long constrained both domestic development and international investment. Stabilizing institutions and ensuring regulatory continuity are critical to providing confidence for foreign partners and enabling large-scale projects to move forward.
Lessons from regional peers, such as Morocco’s Noor Solar Complex, demonstrate the value of public-private partnerships and blended financing. For Libya, adopting similar frameworks can catalyze both oil and gas modernization as well as renewable energy development. Strategic sequencing, investing first in near-term hydrocarbon recovery while preparing for sustainable energy integration, ensures that immediate revenue streams are secured without compromising long-term goals.
Technological modernization is equally important. Enhanced oil recovery, digital field management and modular LNG or renewable units can unlock additional output from mature fields and reduce operational risk. In 2025, new exploration and investment bids signal renewed confidence in Libya’s sector, reflecting the potential for both domestic growth and regional energy leadership.
By pairing robust governance, targeted investment and advanced technology, Libya can overcome these challenges and transform potential into measurable results, positioning itself as a reliable energy partner for Europe and sub-Saharan Africa alike.
Conclusion: A Vision for Libya’s Energy Future
Libya’s combination of resource wealth, strategic location and human capital positions it uniquely to lead Northern Africa’s energy landscape. With disciplined investment, modern technology and credible governance, the country can restore its oil and gas production, strengthen export reliability and attract international partnerships.
At the same time, careful integration of renewable energy, sequenced alongside hydrocarbons, offers a pathway to sustainable growth, reduced emissions and long-term diversification. By learning from regional peers but tailoring solutions to its own geography, Libya can become a model for Mediterranean energy leadership.
The opportunity is clear: Libya can serve not only as a critical energy supplier to Europe and Africa but also as a catalyst for regional stability, economic recovery and job creation. Strategic ambition grounded in realism can turn Libya’s untapped potential into lasting impact, powering prosperity for the country and the wider region.